Calling all BILLievers… [by Patrick Mackenna Jr.]

Focusing on outcome at the expense of process is careless. It’s still the prevailing practice of choice in many of life’s arenas. Don’t tell me about the labor, show me the baby. We look at results often to the exclusion of input, planning and execution. Favorable results can and often are correlated with congruent favorable processes, and vice versa.

Two years ago the Buffalo Bills started the season 5-1 and were considered a virtual lock for the playoffs. This town was enamored with the team and more specifically with the humble, bearded and recycled quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick’s statistics were very good to the naked eye and Fred Jackson was discussed a potential MVP candidate.

There weren’t any columns written about the limitations inherent in Fitzpatrick’s play. There wasn’t much coverage about the undersized core of wide receivers who struggled to create separation. Little was made of the defense’s weak pass rush and their continued problem stopping the run. No one seemed concerned when Jason Campbell, yes that Jason Campbell, pitched a near perfect game and should have beaten the Bills in week 2 that year. There was little concern for the strength of schedule, or lack there of. Buffalo’s only victory against a playoff caliber team was a last second miracle of sorts against New England. Chan Gailey was considered an offensive genius. Maybe I should say that again…Chain Gailey was considered an offensive genius.

Why didn’t anyone write these articles? Because they were winning.

Quickly, 2011 became unglued and the Bills ended up 6-10. The process finally caught up with Buffalo. Strength of schedule improved, teams took away short passes, the defense continued to stink, Fred Jackson was injured and Fitzpatrick regressed to the mean. I expect the 2013 Bills season to end in opposite fashion. This year the strength of schedule will depreciate substantially, Manuel’s play will improve and the defense will play even better against the upcoming competition. The Bills record is not indicative of the quality of this team.

This year’s Bills are 3-6 and markedly better than the 2011 team. Fans must be awfully sick of pathetic attempts to spin the narrative around the club into something optimistic. Looking forward to next year shouldn’t last 14 years. Bills fans may not have to wait for next year. There’s a real chance that we make the playoffs this year. Ready?

For starters, EJ is back and Jeff Tuel will never play again. This sentence constitutes the meat of this entire paragraph. The difference between these two quarterbacks cannot be understated. Quick aside…was anyone else dreading the nonstop Tuel puns? Watching him play is one thing; listening to people jam his name into every sports metaphor involving a tool was much more difficult.

Buffalo has played a brutal schedule. Their opponents record of 49-28 (63.6%) is the 2nd most difficult in the league. Kansas City’s strength of schedule is near the bottom of the league, their opponents are 27-49 (35.5%). Chief’s fans are drinking the Kool-Aid by the barrel. Kansas City’s schedule ends tough and Buffalo’s ends soft. The Bills play the Steelers, Jets, Falcons, Bucs, Jags and the Dolphins (combined 13-36) before closing with the Patriots. There is no reason to count us out just yet…

The NFL has become dependent on competent quarterback play. Buffalo managed to tread water without EJ against high quality opponents. The assumption going into this stretch is that inferior competition combined with Manuel’s substantial improvement over replacement should produce nice results.

Advanced stats indicate that Buffalo ranks 12th in defense (5.2 yards per play allowed), while the offense ranks near the bottom of the league (4.8 yards per play gained). Those numbers are nearly identical to the Kansas City Chiefs (5.1/4.8). Those numbers are more impressive when injuries and strength of schedule is accounted. Buffalo is about to embark on a stretch against opponents comparable to Kansas City’s first (9) opponents and should benefit accordingly.

It is my prediction that Buffalo goes to New England the last week of the season at 9-6 playing for the playoffs. We are going to have relevant football Sunday’s in December. No more hoping for losses to ascend on next year’s draft board.

[by Patrick Mackenna Jr.]

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